Ammon Bundy for Governor?

The controversial figure is suddenly the only alternative to Brad Little

Wait, don’t close the window. This is not an endorsement, at least not yet. I would like to take a look at why Ammon Bundy has a small yet dedicated group of supporters, and what it might take for disaffected Republicans to jump on board.

I wrote about Mr. Bundy’s campaign here and here. In the second piece I said that his withdrawal from the Republican primary to instead run as an independent seemed like a smart move. With Ed Humphreys and Janice McGeachin now out of the running, Bundy becomes a logical protest vote for conservatives who cannot bring themselves to support Brad Little.

I visited Mr. Bundy’s rally last weekend in Meridian to get a sense of his campaign, now that the primary is over. His rallies seem to attract a lot of young people; young families with children, probably homeschoolers. I saw a lot of teenagers there. Over half the people there were wearing Bundy swag. A country singer, I did not catch his name, entertained the crowd while they ate hot dogs and pulled pork sandwiches. Children played in the field and in two bounce houses that had been set up for the event.

While there were die-hard supporters of both the McGeachin and Humphreys campaigns, Bundy’s crowd is different. There is less crossover with other conservative groups. Bundy supporters have long seen him as the only alternative to what they consider to be a corrupt establishment. Every issue on which corporate media attacks him - his family history, his confrontations with police, his unwavering position in the Baby Cyrus case - only makes his supporters even more devoted. They assume that anyone not being attacked by corporate media and the GOP establishment must not really be on their side.

Ammon Bundy himself began speaking about two hours after the event began, wearing his trademark cowboy hat. The campaign seems to have aged him - he looks older and older each time I see him. He began his talk by laying out a poll that had been done of Idaho voters about the lockdowns in 2020. Despite the dry subject, the crowd listened intently as Bundy described how 40% of Idahoans apparently think Governor Brad Little is the best man to protect their liberties, despite the fact that it was Little himself who ordered businesses and churches to shut down two years ago.

Bundy explained that this is the problem. Idaho is a red state, despite the influence of big business lobbies and the political establishment. Yet many voters simply have no idea what is really going on. Governor Little sent out postcards claiming that he never shut down our state, and enough voters believed him.

Brad Little won 52% of the vote in the Republican primary, which means that 48% of GOP voters who turned out opposed him. Is that 48% enough to build a movement? Ammon Bundy is surely aware of the tough hill he has to climb. Mr. Little barely broke a sweat in this primary - he knew that all the big lobbies and PACs had his back. They will surely bring out the big guns against Bundy over the next six months, tarring him as unstable, an extremist, and perhaps even a carpetbagger.

Old-school Republicans wince at the very mention of Ammon Bundy’s name. Despite his platform of low taxes, banning abortion, and reclaiming state sovereignty, some Republicans point to his history of getting arrested and his suspicion of police as disqualifying. Incidentally, I assume those two issues are related - Bundy’s experience with law enforcement has come from federal agents attempting to seize his family’s land, a shootout with the FBI in Oregon, and being arrested for what he considers exercising his constitutional rights. Of course he has a different perspective of cops than those who attend dinners hosted by the Fraternal Order of Police. Nevertheless it turns off a lot of Republican voters who believe in back the blue as an absolute dogma.

For my part, I like a lot of what Mr. Bundy has to say. I believe the issues he is raising, especially with regards to the relationship of our state to the federal government, will need to be tackled one way or another in the coming decades. I hope that whatever happens this year that less controversial figures will begin picking up these concerns.

Ammon Bundy reminds me a lot of Donald Trump in 2015. Remember that serious Republicans mocked his campaign early on, saying that he was a buffoon, a philanderer, an unserious candidate. As late as January 2016, National Review published their cover story Against Trump. Many of the pundits who signed that editorial now think of themselves as leaders of the MAGA movement, for what it’s worth.

Time will tell if the Bundy campaign follows in Trump’s footsteps. Is he going to be able to articulate a clear and convincing conservative message that can counteract the ad blitz that Governor Little is sure to unleash next fall? Will enough disaffected conservatives vote against Brad Little, even if it means voting for Ammon Bundy? With just over five months until Election Day, anything can happen.