Hot Takes on the Day After
Initial thoughts on the election both in Idaho and the country
Good morning friends. I had a long day yesterday, working the polling place for fifteen hours and then staying up until 1am watching election returns. Some good people lost last night, but a lot of good people won as well, and today is a new day.
Click here for statewide results.
Click here for Ada County results.
First, the good news.
My candidates in LD14 crushed it. Senator Grow won 80% of the vote against two third party challengers, while Ted Hill won 75% and Josh Tanner 74% against their Democrat opponents. Gem County came in hard for Republicans, with all three candidates passing 80%. I am very pleased with these results. It shows that LD14 is still a Republican stronghold, no matter how much money and time the left throws into it. We crushed Shelley Brock and Crystal Ivie just like I hoped, though I salute them for being willing to jump into the fray for what they believe in. Ivie was out knocking on doors nearly ever day for weeks on end, which is a reminder that we cannot become complacent and rest on our laurels, even in solid red regions.
Next door in LD10, conservative rock star Tammy Nichols soundly defeated her Democrat opponent to win a seat in the State Senate. She will join other great liberty legislators such as Scott Herndon, Brian Lenney, and Glenneda Zuiderveld, and I for one cannot wait to sit in the gallery for the debates in the upcoming session.
One great Republican who will not join them is rising star Codi Galloway, who did us all a great service by ousting the traitorous Fred Martin in the primary but lost last night by 327 votes. The Ada County GOP did a lot of work in this race (and State House candidate Dori Healey managed to win in LD15!) but came up just short in what is probably the most competitive district in the state. The Constitution Party candidate, Sarah Clendenon, won 413 votes. Nothing like a “principled” third party run to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
Ada County results are a mixed bag. At the highest level, Republicans won some solid victories. Rod Beck was reelected as county commissioner, and he will be joined by Tom Dayley who also won a solid victory. With Ryan Davidson not on the ballot this year, that means that all three seats on the board of commissioners will be held by Republicans. That really is incredible work by the Ada County Republican Party.
Sheriff Matthew Clifford cruised to election in his own right, after being appointed last year, and Republicans will hold the county assessor position. County coroner, the one seat held by Democrats until now, looks to flip as Rich Riffle defeated incumbent Dotti Owens by 795 votes.
On the other hand, the races for College of Western Idaho trustee did not go our way. Jan Zarr did the best out of the four conservatives, winning 41.8% of the vote. The question of how Ada County would vote for Republicans at the top level but support leftists in this race is a vexing one. Most people have never heard of the CWI trustees, so I doubt there is a strong incumbency bias. Democrats campaigned for their side, and Republicans (mostly*) campaigned for ours. I look forward to parsing some data in this one.
Disappointingly, Mary May was defeated by socialist Miranda Gold for Ada County Highway District commissioner. Like CWI trustees, ACHD is technically nonpartisan, meaning that May did not have the benefit of an R next to her name. We like to think that does not matter but it does. As I worked the polls yesterday I got a small glimpse into how people who are not plugged into politics 24/7 like me approach the issue. The average person does not spend hours and hours researching candidates and issues before casting their vote, they just go with their guts, or vote party line, or vote for the name that is most familiar.
The question is how do we reach these voters with a compelling message?
Statewide races went as expected, and liberty champion Raúl Labrador crushed far left Democrat and political opportunist Tom Arkoosh. Despite fifty so-called Republicans endorsing Arkoosh, Labrador won by more than 137,000 votes. This is great news for two reasons: First, Labrador is going to be an incredible attorney general, and will be the spokesman for liberty in Idaho. Second, it shows that those fifty traitors are completely irrelevant in Idaho politics. They staked their reputations on Arkoosh, and we can now safely ignore them. The Republican Party grows stronger when its worst members voluntarily depart.
Ammon Bundy did about as well as I expected, though I was predicting he would overtake Democrat Stephen Heidt for second place. Not quite. But nearly 100,000 people voted for Bundy, which shows that there is a true movement that demands radical change to save our state from going the way of California, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado.
Scott Cleveland got 50,000 votes himself, which is impressive for someone with no name recognition who ran on the claim that the incumbent, Senator Mike Crapo, was not a true conservative. Incumbent senators almost never lose, so this many votes is not a bad showing, and another sign that there is room for a conservative conversation in Idaho discourse.
At the national level, the red waved fizzled a bit. Pundits will be tearing apart the data to figure out why, but my basic takeaway is that there are more loyal Democrats than we like to think. We see thousands of people at Trump rallies and other events and assume that America still has a conservative majority, but we tend to forget the millions of people packed in the cities and spread throughout the suburbs who vote Democrat no matter what. We have record inflation, we are on the brink of nuclear war, the left is promoting infanticide and child mutilation, and these people will still say “Yes, that’s my team.”
This paradigm was clearly demonstrated in Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman, a stroke victim who can barely string together enough words to form a sentence, defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz, a man who is much more well spoken and was endorsed by Donald Trump. My initial impression is that there are enough Democrat voters who don’t care at all that Fetterman is brain-damaged, because he is on their side. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to get picky about their candidates. Oz has had some non-conservative positions in the past, he is regarded as something of a quack TV doctor, and his background does not scream Pennsylvania native. So rather than voting for their team, Republicans stayed home. That is why we lose.
A lot of conservatives are blaming Donald Trump, which seems foolish to me. Trump held thirty rallies for Republican candidates leading up to Election Day, spent millions of dollars and a tremendous amount of energy lifting them up. The original NeverTrumpers like Ben Shapiro are desperately trying to throw Trump under the bus to make way for another candidate like Ron DeSantis, and sadly a lot of conservatives are listening to their rhetoric. I will dig deeper into this myself another time, but for now check out my friend Raheem Kassam’s take over at his Substack.
The issue is more about tribe than policy, as the Pennsylvania race showed. Political loyalty is something that the Republicans are going to have to learn if they want any chance of holding power in the future. When you look at the Ada County results, see the breakdown of absentee voting versus Election Day voting. The race for county sheriff is a good example:
Victor McCraw, who as far as I could tell barely bothered campaigning, won absentee voting 55%-45%, while Sheriff Clifford crushed him on Election Day 64%-36%. If Republicans really wanted to win, if we truly believe that stopping the Democrats is an existential priority, then our way forward is simple: ban absentee ballots. Keep the exceptions for deployed military or other marginal cases, but get rid of this idea that you can treat voting like mailing a postcard. It cheapens voting, and makes it easier for Democrat activists to run up the vote. One volunteer can get an apartment complex of hundreds to cast their ballots in a single afternoon.
But Republicans have trouble with ideas like this. We still believe that the purpose of politics is to make life better for everyone. The idea of using government power to reward our friends and punish our enemies is extremely distasteful. But that is what the Democrats have been doing for ages, and it is why they continue to win when by all rights they should be demolished. Auron MacIntyre says it best on Twitter: “The side that wants to win will always beat the side that wants to be left alone.” So do we really want to win?
The race for CWI trustee gets to the heart of this question. The four incumbents were leftist activists, endorsed by several Democrat PACs and pro-abortion lobbies. The four challengers were solid conservatives, endorsed by several right-wing organizations. The Canyon County Central Committee took a vote to recommend them, but Ada County did not.
Why?
From what I understand, the Ada County GOP interprets state party rules to not allow the central committee to endorse or recommend candidates in races with multiple Republicans, such as a primary. Since the CWI race is technically nonpartisan, the county leadership decided to put all of the registered Republicans on the Ada County GOP voter guide, which included two of the leftist incumbents. Many PCs and volunteers, including the conservative candidates for CWI themselves, were understandably frustrated. The two “Republican” incumbents were going around the Treasure Valley collecting money and endorsements from far-left groups, while advertising to Republican voters that they were endorsed by the GOP.
Despite the clear differences between the slates of candidates, I believe that some Republican leaders are more concerned with appearing fair than winning. I have watched many Republicans move ever leftward, following the zeitgeist, because they base their entire identity on being centrists. The 2nd Vice Chair of the Ada County GOP took the podium at the last central committee meeting to defend his decision to put those two leftists on the voter guide. He became extremely emotional as he accused liberty activists of threatening him, strongly implying that Idaho State GOP Chair Dorothy Moon was behind those threats. Tears flowed as he vowed to always do his job no matter what anyone says.
If those are the rules, then so be it, but yesterday’s results are a sign we must change them and become more active as a party in protecting and promoting conservative values, not just anyone who happens to register as a Republican.
I think that too many Republicans are more interested in appearing fair than actually winning political power. Once in power, they again go out of their way to look objective, centrist, and nonpartisan, while the Democrats use their power to expand their influence, reward their friends, and punish their enemies. You might sleep better at night by doing the former, patting yourself on the back for being so principled. But what does it matter when our political enemies are in the process of destroying our country? If the Democrats are the existential threat that candidates always say they are, then why don’t Republicans actually do something about it? The left thinks we’re all Nazis, which is how they justify doing everything within their power to stop us. How should we fight back?
On Twitter, user κρυπτός wrote a thread this morning about why Republicans are continually defeated. It basically breaks down to Carl Schmitt’s concept of the friend/enemy distinction, one that Republican leadership still fails to understand. The whole thing is worth reading:
The cause of liberty won several great victories yesterday. J.D. Vance is in the Senate. Kari Lake will likely be Arizona’s next governor. Ron DeSantis crushed the unprincipled Charlie Crist. The Idaho State Senate got a lot more conservative. But we have to face the truth about the state of the American electorate: there is no longer a silent conservative majority waiting in the wings to save our country. The older generations are the most conservative, while younger generations are much more left-wing, even outright socialist. This trend does not bode well for liberty in America. We need to consolidate our power where we can, in red states like Idaho, and put forth a positive vision of how we will fight for our people. That is the winning message going forward.
One thing is certain: the fight for liberty in Idaho is just getting started. I am in this for the long haul, and I invite you to join me.
The system is broken and those closest to it are so interested in playing on team R either can’t won’t admit this simple fact. The GOP club is protecting the team for better or for worse. Why were Little and Bedke left off of your analysis? I wonder if it’s because the GOP knows this is bad for Idaho. But, of course, you can’t say that because the team won’t allow it.
Maybe digging deeper into why so many people are dropping off the team and voting for “principled” independent candidates is a more important task. I had to laugh that the word principled was placed in quotes because it so accurately describes how many disillusioned conservatives see many R’s. I did not vote for Sarah, but I would be interested to hear more from the over 400 people who did. I suppose this analysis also assumes that these votes would go to the R.
I am not a paid analyst or vying to be on team red so my takes are from a regular citizen who is very skeptical of the party’s integrity. I diligently research issues and candidates before voting. The Idaho Republican Party cheapened principled votes as much as the left by giving blanket protection and passive endorsement to any R candidate. Little got by with no accountability and even got his liberal opinion poll through to support giving more money to our terrible public schools. Embarrassingly, he gave out bribery checks right before the election and the GOP let all of that go without question! But the GOP will wring their hands at inflation. Where do they suppose inflation comes from?
Lastly, a couple weeks ago, I emailed several of our previously more vocal freedom-focused representatives and asked if they had researched Bundy. Many of their views seemed to align with Bundy’s keep Idaho Idaho plan. I also encouraged them to be more vocal again in holding Little accountable and possibly endorse Bundy if they felt he was a better candidate. One representative responded on Election Day that their ballot had just been completed and, “I voted for him. I hope he wins.” While I appreciate this reps honesty, it further cemented my opinion of party politics. Perhaps the closet endorsement cleared this rep’s conscience that we did our best. Very likely this same representative and others will be fighting Little on his less than conservative views and fighting back in the legislature once again. The bed has certainly been made by so many R team members and the entire keep Idaho red crew. So here’s to four more years of fighting back against Little. Maybe next election the team can work up the courage to speak boldly and publicly about truly conservative candidates.
Thank you for your analysis, Brian. Multifaceted and reasoned as always.
Unfortunately, the elephant in the room in Idaho and elsewhere in America is election integrity. The Heritage Foundation ranks Idaho 38th in Election Integrity (https://electionintegrityidaho.org/2022/02/17/idaho-ranked-38th-in-election-integrity/). That's terrible!
I witnessed (and reported) three incidents of potential election irregularities here in Ada County. I am not convinced we had free and fair elections here or anywhere in America (with a few exceptions) and hope the election integrity groups and fair-minded judges will take a much closer look at the entire election process.
Freedom candidates (and voters) who lost their elections should NOT give up. They should use their skills and fervor to submit to their representatives bills that support free and fair elections, the US and Idaho Constitutions, and the American ideals of life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. Then they should lobby for these bills. Slinking away should not be an option those who wish to keep our republic free.
I hope the Republican Party leadership -- top to bottom -- will do a great deal of much-needed soul searching. Republicans must start backing candidates who are competent at freedom, not just political maneuvering; who will put the voters and the country before Party and their own personal gain; who will not support backroom deals, globalists and corporatists; and who truly believe in and will implement the admirable Republican platform.
People who support freedom SHOULD NOT have to give up their party affiliation for principles that make and keep America strong! We moved to Idaho to escape tyranny and corruption; sadly, in many cases tyranny and corruption remain alive and well here, even in the Republican Party. So many "Rs" after people's names fool the voters into complacency. We must re-form and re-make the Republican Party, or we won't have a republic.
Likewise, citizens and legislators who care about our country MUST work together to change laws, educate themselves between elections, and watch what happens around them.
Everyone must become pro-active in preserving their own futures and that of America.
Finally, the Golden Rule is the principle of treating others as one wants to be treated. Every American must put the Golden Rule into practice every single day, regardless of party, religion, color, creed, gender identification, etc.